Analyst Ratings January 23, 2026

Bernstein SocGen Revises McCormick Price Target Amid Tepid Outlook for 2026

Despite reduced price target to $85, Bernstein SocGen retains Outperform rating on McCormick shares

By Sofia Navarro MKC
Bernstein SocGen Revises McCormick Price Target Amid Tepid Outlook for 2026
MKC

Bernstein SocGen Group has trimmed its price target for McCormick shares to $85 from $87 in response to the company's subdued fiscal 2026 guidance. The research firm kept its Outperform rating but highlighted several headwinds affecting growth projections, including weaker-than-expected organic sales, earnings per share shortfall, elevated tax rates, and increased marketing investments. Other analyst firms such as BofA Securities have also adjusted their price targets following recent quarterly results, reflecting a cautious market stance amid operational challenges.

Key Points

  • Bernstein SocGen lowered McCormick's price target to $85 due to weaker-than-expected fiscal 2026 outlook but kept an Outperform rating.
  • Fiscal 2026 organic sales forecast of 1-3% is below consensus, with EPS guidance at $3.05 to $3.13, trailing analyst estimates.
  • Cost pressures include a 3% tax rate increase, accelerated digital transformation rollout impacts, rising brand marketing expenditure, and heightened incentive compensation.
  • McCormick's recent quarterly results underperformed expectations, especially in the Americas Flavor Solutions segment due to client inventory reductions, resulting in price target cuts from BofA Securities but maintained Buy ratings.

Bernstein SocGen Group recently adjusted its price target on McCormick (NYSE:MKC) downwards to $85.00 from an earlier $87.00, though it maintained an Outperform recommendation on the stock. This downward revision follows McCormick’s issuance of fiscal year 2026 guidance that Bernstein SocGen characterized as underwhelming.

The guidance projects organic sales growth in the range of 1% to 3%, which falls roughly 70 basis points short of consensus estimates that have set expectations at approximately 2.7% growth at the midpoint. Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts also came in below consensus, with McCormick projecting EPS between $3.05 and $3.13. This midpoint is 4.3% less than prevailing analyst estimates of $3.23, a discrepancy that Bernstein SocGen notes has influenced recent fluctuations in the stock price.

Several factors are expected to constrain McCormick’s earnings expansion in the near term. These include a 3% drag from an increased tax rate, as well as a 4% impact linked to management’s choice to accelerate the digital transformation rollout schedule, a move anticipated to alleviate pressure in 2027 and 2028. Additionally, the company anticipates a rebound in incentive compensation expenses and a projected mid-to-high teens percentage increase in brand marketing spend, both contributing further to cost pressures.

In related developments, McCormick & Company’s fourth-quarter results missed organic sales expectations, primarily within its Americas Flavor Solutions segment. This shortfall was partially attributed to inventory reductions by a Mexican consumer packaged goods customer. Consequently, Bank of America Securities trimmed its McCormick price target from $89.00 to $80.00 but upheld a Buy rating.

Separately, the pharmaceutical distributor McKesson also experienced mixed analyst reactions following its recent quarterly performance. Jefferies lowered its price target to $74.00 from $79.00 after McKesson missed fourth-quarter earnings and provided lighter guidance for 2026, citing sustained inflationary cost pressures as a concern. In contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $1,000 price target, highlighting optimism about McKesson’s growth prospects driven by demographic trends and pharmaceutical innovation.

Further support for McKesson came from Leerink Partners, which raised its price target significantly to $965 from $850 after strong segment performances, and Evercore ISI, which increased its target to $1,000 from $825, noting robust results in the North American Pharmaceutical division and anticipated operating income growth.

These diverse analyst perspectives illustrate the current complexity and varying outlooks within sectors impacted by consumer goods and healthcare distribution dynamics.

Risks

  • Slower organic sales growth than analyst consensus could pressure valuation and earnings projections in the consumer packaged goods sector.
  • Higher tax rates and expanded marketing investments pose margin compression risks, affecting profitability forecasts.
  • Accelerated digital transformation initiatives may weigh on near-term earnings growth, though expected to ease in subsequent years, introducing uncertainty to financial performance.

More from Analyst Ratings

Disney Shares Slip as Analysts Question Whether Parks Overshadow Content Strategy Feb 2, 2026 Stifel trims Eagle Materials price target to $232 as housing softness weighs on wallboard results Feb 2, 2026 UBS Sticks With Buy on McDonald’s Ahead of Q4 Results, Flags 2026 Upside Feb 2, 2026 Truist Raises Caterpillar Target to $786 After Record Backlog, Analysts Follow Suit Feb 2, 2026 UBS Sticks With Buy on Yum! Brands Ahead of Q4 Results, Flags Marketing Impact at Pizza Hut Feb 2, 2026