Analyst firm Bernstein SocGen Group revised its rating on Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) shares from Outperform to Market Perform last Friday, simultaneously nudging up the price target marginally from $53.50 to $54.00. These moves come as the stock is valued at approximately $58.85, positioning near its 52-week peak of $62.12, and exhibiting a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.86, markedly higher than many competitors within the metals and mining industry.
According to InvestingPro analytics, Freeport-McMoRan’s current market price aligns closely with its estimated Fair Value, implying that its potential for recovery has already been largely priced in. This is further evidenced by a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 2.27, which suggests investors are paying a premium when measured against the company’s forecasted growth rates.
Despite clear signs of ongoing recovery from the Grasberg external mud rush event, including the recommencement of operations at Big Gossan and DMLZ mines in the fourth quarter as anticipated, Bernstein SocGen has expressed caution. The company confirmed plans to restart the PB2-3 mining site in the second quarter of 2026.
Progress on critical recovery objectives appears promising, with 97% completion of cleanup efforts, the pouring and curing of initial drift plugs, and the commencement of infrastructure repairs aimed for completion by the first quarter of 2026.
Freeport-McMoRan has also provided upward guidance for its production outlook, forecasting copper output to reach 3.4 billion pounds in 2026, with a gradual increase from 0.64 billion pounds in the early part of the year to 1.02 billion pounds later, and further expansion to 4.1 billion pounds in 2027. In parallel, gold production projections stand at 0.8 million ounces for 2026, with an increase to 1.2 million ounces expected in 2027. Supporting these optimistic prospects, InvestingPro data indicates three analysts have recently raised earnings expectations for the upcoming periods.
Despite Freeport-McMoRan’s strong positioning to augment copper output in the U.S. and its ongoing advancements in leaching technology, Bernstein SocGen highlighted valuation concerns. The firm notes that current share prices implicitly assume copper prices higher than those they consider reasonable. This perspective is bolstered by the company's premium valuation ratios, including a Price-to-Book ratio of 4.47 and an Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA of 11.56.
Investors seeking a more granular understanding of Freeport-McMoRan’s valuation and growth dynamics may benefit from InvestingPro’s comprehensive Pro Research Reports, which cover expert analysis on over 1,400 U.S. equities, translating complex financial data into actionable intelligence.
On the earnings front, Freeport-McMoRan posted impressive results for the fourth quarter of 2025, exceeding both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue forecasts. The EPS came in at $0.47, notably surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.28, representing a 67.86% positive surprise. Revenue also outperformed expectations, registering $5.63 billion relative to the projected $5.28 billion, amounting to a 6.63% increase. These figures underscore the company’s robust financial footing during this period. However, market reaction has been muted with only a modest premarket stock movement observed. Analysts have acknowledged these developments, which may influence future evaluations and investor sentiment.