Bernstein Lowers CSX Price Target Amid Revenue Challenges and Mixed Earnings

In the wake of CSX Corporation's recent quarterly earnings announcement, Bernstein SocGen Group has revised its price target downward to $36 per share from $37, while retaining a Market Perform rating on the railroad operator. As of now, CSX's stock price sits at approximately $35.78, closely aligned with Bernstein’s calculated fair value, and the company's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 23.38.

The impetus for Bernstein’s cautious adjustment lies in CSX’s earnings report where the company recorded a headline earnings per share (EPS) that missed expectations by 6%, primarily due to revenues falling short. When Bernstein adjusted these numbers to exclude one-time items, the EPS miss narrowed to a range between 2% and 3%, reflecting a more tempered shortfall. Complementary data from InvestingPro reveals that 19 analysts have decreased their earnings forecasts for the upcoming period, underscoring a more guarded market outlook.

CSX’s non-GAAP EPS reached $0.39, which was less than the consensus estimates. Revenue figures were also underwhelming, missing the consensus by 50 basis points. On a per unit basis, revenue ended up 20 basis points below anticipated levels, or a more substantial 70 basis points lower when excluding fuel surcharge impacts. The company's annual revenue totals about $14.12 billion, marking a 3.8% decline year-on-year.

Segment performance showed divergence, with intermodal revenue per unit outperforming Bernstein’s expectations. However, the coal and merchandise divisions did not meet projected outcomes, highlighting uneven performance across business lines.

For the complete fiscal year, CSX posted a baseline operating ratio of 66.8%, which represents an increase of 360 basis points compared to the prior year. Bernstein attributes this rise to a combination of mix headwinds, challenging macroeconomic conditions, and modifications within the network.

Further recent financial disclosures from CSX during the fourth quarter of 2025 disclosed an EPS of $0.42, slightly surpassing forecasts of $0.41, while revenue totaled $3.51 billion, slightly less than the expected $3.55 billion.

Analyst reactions from other firms have been mixed:

• Benchmark reaffirmed a Buy rating and set a $40 price target, in spite of CSX’s EPS falling short of their predictions.
• RBC Capital decreased its price target to $39 but maintained an Outperform rating, considering the earnings somewhat in line after factoring in unusual costs and tax benefits.
• Evercore ISI adjusted its price target to $40, describing the financial results as mixed due to lower volume and yield outcomes.
• Raymond James adopted a more positive stance, raising its price target to $41, buoyed by confidence in CSX’s ONECSX operational initiatives.

These various perspectives illustrate the range of analyst interpretation surrounding CSX's underlying performance and outlook, reflecting the complexities within the railroad sector's current conditions.