Analyst Ratings February 4, 2026

Bernstein Lifts Northrop Grumman Price Target to $765 Citing Improved Outlook Into 2026

Analyst raises target but keeps Market Perform as company posts stronger-than-expected Q4 2025 results and outlines 2026 guidance

By Ajmal Hussain NOC
Bernstein Lifts Northrop Grumman Price Target to $765 Citing Improved Outlook Into 2026
NOC

Bernstein increased its 12-month price objective for Northrop Grumman (NOC) to $765 from $727 while retaining a Market Perform rating, pointing to constructive trends extending into 2026. The defense contractor beat fourth-quarter 2025 earnings and revenue expectations, provided revenue guidance for 2026 slightly below consensus, and reported solid free cash flow and a moderate debt profile.

Key Points

  • Bernstein raised its Northrop Grumman price target to $765 from $727 but maintained a Market Perform rating, citing positive trends into 2026.
  • Northrop Grumman reported Q4 2025 EPS of $7.23 and revenue of $11.7 billion; full-year revenue was $41.95 billion with diluted EPS of $29.08.
  • 2026 revenue guidance of $43.5 billion to $44 billion is slightly below the $44.2 billion consensus; valuation and Mission Systems growth are highlighted as points of focus.

Analyst update and market context

Bernstein has raised its price target on Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC) to $765.00 from $727.00, while keeping a Market Perform rating, citing what it describes as positive momentum expected to continue into 2026. Northrop Grumman shares are trading near their 52-week high of $707.66 and, according to InvestingPro data cited in company reporting, the stock has returned 48.7% over the past year.

Quarterly performance details

The company reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $7.23. That result was noted as above the consensus estimate of $7.04. Revenue for the quarter came in at $11.7 billion versus a consensus near $11.6 billion. For the full year, Northrop Grumman recorded $41.95 billion in revenue and diluted EPS of $29.08.

In additional reporting of the same period, the Q4 EPS of $7.23 was also described as outperforming a forecast of $6.99, with quarterly revenue of $11.7 billion cited as slightly above an anticipated $11.61 billion. The company also provided an outlook for 2026 that projects mid-single-digit sales growth.

Bernstein's view on company trajectory

Bernstein highlighted that Northrop Grumman may be passing a "positive inflection point" after two difficult years. That stretch included charges tied to the B-21 program, delays in the Sentinel program, a loss of the Next Generation Interceptor contract, and the cancellation of a classified satellite program. The firm pointed to the recent market performance as evidence of the shift, with InvestingPro data showing returns of 20.5% over the past six months and 23.6% year-to-date.

Guidance, valuation and balance-sheet notes

For 2026, Northrop Grumman issued revenue guidance in the range of $43.5 billion to $44 billion, which Bernstein characterizes as slightly below the consensus estimate of $44.2 billion. The company indicated lower growth expectations in its Mission Systems division as part of that guidance.

With a market capitalization of roughly $100 billion, Northrop Grumman trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.25. InvestingPro flagged that valuation as high relative to near-term earnings growth. Bernstein also said that the company’s capital expenditure and free cash flow guidance were in line with expectations and that no material charges were recorded in Q4 2025.

Over the last twelve months, Northrop Grumman generated $3.3 billion in levered free cash flow and retains a moderate level of debt. InvestingPro’s consolidated analysis assigns the company a "GOOD" financial health score based on those metrics.

Takeaway

Bernstein’s price-target increase reflects an improved near-term outlook for Northrop Grumman while the firm maintains a Market Perform rating. The company’s recent quarterly results exceeded multiple consensus figures for EPS and revenue, it provided guidance for 2026 that sits slightly below consensus, and it continues to display steady free cash flow generation and a measured debt position.


Note: The article presents reported figures and analyst commentary as provided in company and analyst releases.

Risks

  • Guidance risk: 2026 revenue guidance of $43.5 billion to $44 billion is slightly below consensus, with weaker growth expected in the Mission Systems division - impacts aerospace & defense revenue expectations.
  • Program and execution risk: The company faced prior charges and setbacks including B-21 program charges, Sentinel program delays, loss of the Next Generation Interceptor contract, and a cancelled classified satellite program - these factors affect program delivery and contract performance in the defense sector.
  • Valuation risk: With a market capitalization near $100 billion and a P/E of 24.25, InvestingPro notes the valuation is high relative to near-term earnings growth - relevant to equity investors assessing downside if growth slows.

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