Bernstein SocGen Group announced a raise to its price target on Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD), moving the target to $315.00 from $300.00 on Monday and retaining an Outperform rating on the stock.
The firm pointed to evidence that Air Products is executing a so-called "back to basics strategy," drawing that conclusion from the company’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 results. Bernstein called out progress on productivity initiatives as a specific area of improvement, a view that is consistent with recent analyst activity: InvestingPro data referenced in the review shows four analysts have revised their earnings forecasts higher for the upcoming period.
Bernstein framed the company’s growth outlook around two near-term supports. First, the research note highlighted the semiconductor sector as an ongoing source of demand for Air Products’ gases and services. Second, the firm expects value creation from new project start-ups scheduled for the second half of fiscal 2026. Taken together, Bernstein suggested these factors could catalyze additional upward revisions to consensus estimates.
The analyst note also addressed the company’s recent profitability trajectory. Air Products reported negative earnings of -$1.46 per share over the last twelve months, but Bernstein and other analysts forecast a return to profitability during the current year.
At the center of Bernstein’s risk-reward assessment is the Darrow megaproject. The firm described Darrow as the main outstanding issue for Air Products and outlined a conditional view on its impact: if the project is canceled, Bernstein expects the stock would likely rise; if it proceeds as planned, the firm believes it would probably create shareholder value. The research note also acknowledged a downside scenario in which Darrow proceeds but underperforms relative to expectations.
Despite these uncertainties, Bernstein expressed increased confidence in management’s ability to execute, characterizing that credibility as "increasing" in the context of the company’s operational progress. The firm additionally noted that Air Products has sustained dividend payments for 56 consecutive years and currently yields 2.66 percent.
Separately, Air Products posted results for the first fiscal quarter of 2026 that outpaced analyst projections. The company reported earnings per share of $3.16, ahead of the $3.04 consensus forecast, representing a 3.95 percent positive surprise. Revenue for the quarter was $3.1 billion versus an expected $3.05 billion. Bernstein and other market observers pointed to those results as evidence of the company’s recent operational strength.
While market reaction to these developments is not detailed in the note, Bernstein’s upgrade of the price target and the maintained Outperform rating signal a constructive stance on Air Products’ prospects as it navigates project execution and leverages demand tied to semiconductors and new project ramps.
Context note: Additional analytical content and model-based research on APD are available through InvestingPro, including deeper Pro Research reports and ProTips that aim to translate financial data into actionable insights.