Bernstein SocGen Group has reaffirmed a Market Perform rating on HCA Healthcare Inc with a price target of $503.00. That target sits very near HCA’s latest share price of $505.84 and not far from the company’s 52-week high of $527.55.
In its note, Bernstein points to a slowing top-line trajectory while emphasizing that margins have continued to outpace expectations for the fourth quarter. The firm links HCA’s recent financial momentum to execution that has lifted margins and to solid rate growth - the latter aided in part by supplemental payment programs. The research note cites $15.49 billion in EBITDA for HCA over the last twelve months, a level that underpins what the firm describes as a "GREAT" overall financial health score in available financial-health metrics.
Bernstein expects rate momentum to persist into 2026, even as it observes that equivalent admissions growth has slowed back to more normalized levels. Looking further out, the firm flagged potential headwinds to rate growth in 2027 and said it will be watching for evidence of continued improvement in the compensation ratio as a key driver for further margin expansion.
The analyst commentary arrives against the backdrop of pronounced shareholder returns: HCA has delivered a 55.05% total return over the past year and gained 8.68% in the most recent week.
HCA’s own reporting for the fourth quarter of 2025 reflected mixed results. The company posted earnings per share of $8.01, beating a consensus estimate of $7.45. Revenue for the quarter came in at $19.51 billion, slightly below the forecast of $19.67 billion.
Several other brokerages have moved to lift their valuation targets after the quarter. Truist Securities increased its price target to $546, citing a strong fourth quarter and constructive guidance for fiscal 2026. Goldman Sachs raised its target to $558, noting a 1.7% EBITDA beat for the quarter and reaffirming expectations for volume growth in 2026. Bank of America raised its own target to $540, signaling confidence in HCA’s 2026 growth outlook while noting that that target does not incorporate potential contributions from pending Supplemental Directed Payment programs.
Taken together, the analyst reactions illustrate a broadly positive view from multiple firms on HCA’s near-term performance and guidance, even as Bernstein’s positioning underscores some caution about the sustainability of rate gains and the need for continued improvement on compensation metrics.