Overview
Bernstein SocGen Group has raised its price target on SanDisk to $1,000.00 from $580.00 and retains an Outperform rating following the memory maker's stronger-than-expected quarterly performance. The upgrade comes after SanDisk posted notable top- and bottom-line beats in the second quarter and issued guidance that reflects a substantial sequential acceleration in the next quarter.
Quarterly results that exceeded expectations
SanDisk reported second-quarter revenue of $3.0 billion, a 31% increase that topped the consensus revenue estimate of $2.67 billion. On the profit side, the company reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $6.20, well above the consensus estimate of $3.49. The company additionally disclosed a fourth-quarter revenue figure of $3.03 billion, which also surpassed projections of $2.68 billion.
Aggressive guidance for the next quarter
Management's guidance for the third quarter served as the primary catalyst for Bernstein's revised view. SanDisk projected Q3 revenue in a $4.4 billion to $4.8 billion range, which, at the midpoint, represents a roughly 53% sequential increase. The company also guided non-GAAP gross margin to rise to the 65% to 67% range for Q3, a sequential improvement of about 1490 basis points at the midpoint.
Contracting model under review
The company is beginning to evaluate a move away from its prevailing short-term contract structure - which currently accounts for over 90% of sales - toward longer-term agreements that would lock in higher sustained pricing and fixed volumes. The evaluation reflects management's active assessment of commercial terms in the context of current market dynamics.
Analyst estimate changes
Following the results and guidance, Bernstein substantially increased its earnings forecasts for SanDisk. The firm now projects fiscal year 2026 EPS of $38.92 and fiscal year 2027 EPS of $90.96, with the FY27 figure cited as 188% above current consensus estimates.
Peer reactions and revised targets
Other investment firms also adjusted their targets in response to the results and SanDisk's forward guidance. Mizuho raised its price target to $710, citing strong demand for AI-related products. Jefferies initiated a $700 price target, attributing the move to a significant increase in NAND memory pricing. Goldman Sachs adjusted its target to $700 after noting results and guidance that exceeded expectations. RBC Capital lifted its target to $650, pointing to the effects of supply tightness in the NAND memory market.
Additional guidance note
SanDisk has also guided first-quarter revenue to rise by 52% quarter-over-quarter to $4.60 billion, well above an anticipated $2.95 billion, according to the information provided alongside the quarter disclosures.
Implications
The combination of stronger-than-expected quarterly results, materially higher near-term guidance and the company's potential shift in contracting strategy underpins the substantial upward revisions to analyst earnings models and price targets. Several firms have responded with significant target increases, reflecting demand and pricing dynamics in the NAND memory segment.
Conclusion
Bernstein's move to a $1,000 price target, supported by elevated revenue and EPS beats and very strong sequential guidance, highlights how SanDisk's recent performance and outlook have altered analyst expectations. Multiple peers have followed with higher targets, each pointing to aspects of demand, pricing or supply that they see as supportive of the company's near-term prospects.