Analyst Ratings February 3, 2026

Benchmark Sticks With Hold on Marvell After Celestial AI Deal Closes

Marvell completes Celestial AI acquisition; revenue lift not expected until fiscal 2028 with longer-term ramp to $1 billion run-rate by FY2029

By Priya Menon MRVL
Benchmark Sticks With Hold on Marvell After Celestial AI Deal Closes
MRVL

Benchmark has reaffirmed a Hold rating on Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) following the company's completion of its acquisition of Celestial AI, a supplier of optical interconnect technology. Marvell projects that meaningful revenue from Celestial AI will not begin until the second half of fiscal 2028, ramping to an estimated $500 million annualized run-rate in late fiscal 2028 and $1 billion by the end of fiscal 2029. Market metrics from InvestingPro show Marvell with a "GOOD" financial health score and a current trading price that some analyses consider undervalued.

Key Points

  • Benchmark reiterated a Hold rating on Marvell after completion of the Celestial AI acquisition; Marvell's market value is about $64 billion.
  • Marvell does not expect revenue from Celestial AI to meaningfully begin until the second half of fiscal 2028, with a targeted $125 million contribution in Q4 fiscal 2028 ($500 million annualized) and a $250 million quarterly exit in FY2029 Q4 ($1 billion annualized).
  • Marvell is also moving to acquire XConn Technologies for roughly $540 million to expand its PCIe and CXL switching portfolio; analyst reactions include RBC's Outperform initiation and Raymond James' Strong Buy with a $125 price target.

Benchmark on Monday reiterated its Hold rating for Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL), whose market capitalization sits at approximately $64 billion, after the company confirmed it had closed its previously announced purchase of Celestial AI. Celestial AI supplies optical interconnect technology intended for scale-up connectivity, and Marvell said it will integrate that capability into its broader product set.

InvestingPro data cited alongside the announcement lists Marvell with a "GOOD" overall financial health score and identifies it as a significant participant in the Semiconductors industry.

Management has been explicit that the Celestial AI acquisition will not immediately translate into material revenue. Initial sales tied to the deal are forecast to begin in the second half of fiscal 2028, with management anticipating a modest contribution in the third quarter of that fiscal year.

Marvell's own projections indicate a stepped revenue ramp from the Celestial AI assets: the company expects the contribution to reach $125 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2028, equivalent to a $500 million annualized run-rate. Marvell projects that, at this level of contribution, the additional revenue should fully offset the dilutive effects associated with higher operating expenses, reduced interest income, and dilution from an increased share count.

Looking further ahead, Marvell forecasts continued growth from Celestial AI throughout fiscal 2029, exiting that fiscal fourth quarter at $250 million in quarterly revenue, or a $1 billion annualized run-rate. Those company projections sit alongside InvestingPro data noting Marvell delivered 45% revenue growth over the last twelve months, and that analysts expect sales to continue expanding in the current year.

Following the acquisition announcement, Benchmark left its fiscal 2027 revenue expectations for Marvell unchanged. Separately, InvestingPro analysis shows Marvell trading at $74.97 with a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.45, and an analyst consensus rating of 1.69 on a scale where 1 equals Strong Buy, a metric some observers use to assess market expectations.

Operationally, Marvell said it has already integrated Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric optical interconnect technology to strengthen its high-bandwidth, low-latency solutions aimed at AI and cloud data center customers. Company statements indicate this is a strategic enhancement to Marvell's existing data center capabilities.

The company has also disclosed plans to acquire XConn Technologies for approximately $540 million. That transaction, which Marvell says is intended to broaden its switching portfolio by adding XConn's PCIe and CXL products, will be financed with a combination of cash and stock and is expected to close in early 2026, subject to regulatory approvals.

Market responses have varied among analysts. RBC Capital initiated coverage on Marvell with an Outperform rating, citing firm orders for AWS Trainium3 chips and the potential for Marvell to supply Trainium4 in the future. Raymond James subsequently reiterated a Strong Buy rating and set a $125.00 price target after the XConn announcement.


While the company outlines a clear multi-year revenue ramp tied to Celestial AI, current expectations from Benchmark show no immediate change to near-term revenue guidance. Investors and observers will be watching the stated fiscal 2028 and fiscal 2029 milestones closely as the integration and commercialization of Celestial AI technologies proceed.

Risks

  • Revenue from Celestial AI is not anticipated until the second half of fiscal 2028 - near-term revenue and earnings will not benefit immediately, impacting semiconductor and data center equipment markets.
  • The expected offset of dilution depends on Celestial AI meeting the projected revenue ramp; failure to reach the stated $125 million in Q4 fiscal 2028 or the subsequent $250 million quarterly exit by FY2029 could leave Marvell facing increased operating expense and share-count dilution.
  • The XConn Technologies acquisition is subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to close in early 2026; regulatory delay or disapproval could affect Marvell's planned expansion of its switching portfolio.

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