Analyst Ratings February 2, 2026

Benchmark Sticks with Buy on APA Corp, Sees $33 Target as Gas Marketing Strength Offsets Lowered EBITDA

Analyst maintains bullish rating after APA's strong gas marketing performance and cost-savings trajectory, despite a haircut to Q4 EBITDA tied to mark-to-market prices

By Derek Hwang APA
Benchmark Sticks with Buy on APA Corp, Sees $33 Target as Gas Marketing Strength Offsets Lowered EBITDA
APA

Benchmark has reaffirmed its Buy rating on APA Corp with a $33.00 price target, citing notable gas marketing gains that helped offset a downward revision to fourth-quarter EBITDA driven by mark-to-market commodity prices. APA has also reported significant curtailments domestically and foresees a temporary drop in Egyptian volumes due to a short pipeline outage, while the company continues to deliver on cost savings and attract varied analyst coverage.

Key Points

  • Benchmark reaffirmed a Buy rating on APA with a $33.00 price target; InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment suggests the stock is undervalued.
  • Benchmark reduced its Q4 EBITDA estimate to $1.168 billion from $1.328 billion due to mark-to-market commodity price movements, while noting APA’s strongest gas marketing gains of the year.
  • Operational developments include about 23,000 boepd of U.S. curtailments (approximately 8% of third-quarter domestic volumes), a brief Egyptian pipeline outage expected to lower sequential volumes but not materially affect cash flows, and $300 million in year-to-date cost savings with a projected $350 million run-rate saving by end-2025. Sectors impacted include energy, upstream oil and gas production, and midstream gas marketing.

Benchmark reiterated its Buy rating on APA Corp (NASDAQ:APA) and kept a $33.00 price target, according to a research note released Monday. That target aligns closely with InvestingPro's Fair Value assessment referenced in the note, which suggests the stock remains undervalued. APA shares have advanced strongly, producing a 46% price return over the past six months.

In its update, Benchmark trimmed its fourth-quarter EBITDA estimate for APA to $1.168 billion from $1.328 billion, attributing the reduction to mark-to-market movements in commodity prices. Despite the lower EBITDA projection, the firm highlighted that APA pre-reported its largest gas marketing gains of the year, noting that Waha prices faced difficulty reaching break-even levels and that APA’s marketing performance helped mitigate downside pressure.

The research note detailed that APA curtailed roughly 23,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the United States during the period under review. Benchmark quantified that curtailment as about 8% of APA’s third-quarter domestic volumes, reflecting a sizeable temporary pullback in output.

Benchmark also cautioned that APA’s Egyptian production volumes are expected to decline sequentially because of a brief pipeline outage. The note, however, indicated that this short interruption should not have a material effect on the company’s cash flows.

APA Corp, formerly known as Apache Corporation, operates as an independent energy company focused on exploration, development and production of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids.


Alongside Benchmark’s note, the company has been the subject of several analyst and strategic developments. Raymond James reiterated an Outperform rating on APA and maintained a $31.00 price target while noting reports of potential merger discussions with Repsol. RBC Capital raised its price target to $26, citing improved operational consistency. Wolfe Research lowered its price target to $35 but kept an Outperform rating and described APA as undervalued. William Blair initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $32 price target, commenting on APA’s broad asset base.

Operationally, APA has reported progress on cost reductions, achieving $300 million in savings year-to-date and projecting $350 million in run-rate savings by the end of 2025. In a separate corporate development, investment firm Stonepeak reached an agreement to acquire the Australian gas network Allgas from APA Group and other shareholders, with the transaction expected to close in 2026.

The collection of analyst views and corporate moves underscores a period in which APA is balancing near-term price-related pressures with improvements in gas marketing, cost structure and strategic asset transactions. Benchmark’s note frames the company’s recent gas marketing gains as a counterweight to mark-to-market-driven EBITDA adjustments and highlights continued focus on cash flow resilience even where production has been temporarily curtailed or disrupted.

Investors following APA will likely weigh the mix of strong share-price performance over the past six months, the revised EBITDA outlook and the sensitivity of near-term volumes to curtailments and short-lived infrastructure outages against the company’s stated cost-savings trajectory and ongoing analyst interest.

Risks

  • Mark-to-market commodity price movements have already prompted a downward revision to Q4 EBITDA, demonstrating exposure of earnings to volatile commodity prices. This risk primarily affects the upstream oil and gas sector.
  • Production curtailments in the United States, totaling roughly 23,000 boepd and representing about 8% of third-quarter domestic volumes, create downside volume risk and could pressure near-term production metrics in the upstream sector.
  • A brief pipeline outage in Egypt is expected to reduce sequential production volumes; while Benchmark does not anticipate a material cash-flow impact, such midstream disruptions can temporarily affect reported output and revenues in the energy sector.

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