Altria Group reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.30, a number that was unchanged versus the prior year. The result aligned with Stifel's internal estimate but came in $0.02 under the consensus forecast.
The company recorded a 7% underlying decline in cigarette volume during the quarter, a pace modestly worse than the industry's 6.5% contraction. Stifel noted that the broader cigarette market is showing signs of an improving rate of decline, a trend the firm views as constructive for Altria's outlook.
Higher costs affected both the Smokeable and Oral product lines, according to Stifel's analysis, although the firm observed that some of those pressures were offset by below-the-line items.
Altria's revenue net of excise taxes for the quarter was $5.08 billion, ahead of analyst expectations of $5.02 billion. The stronger-than-expected revenue performance contrasts with the slight miss on adjusted EPS, underscoring a mix of robust sales and margin pressure in the period.
For 2026 the company provided guidance calling for adjusted EPS growth of 2.5% to 5.5%, with results expected to be skewed toward the second half of the year. Management said the Smokeable business stands to benefit from increased import/export activity that will unlock additional federal excise tax efficiencies.
Stifel sustained its Buy rating on Altria shares and reiterated a $72 price target. The firm pointed to the moderating rate of cigarette volume decline as a favorable element underpinning its recommendation.
Context and implications
The quarter presents a mixed picture. Revenue performance excluding excise taxes exceeded expectations, signaling continued topline resilience. At the same time, a slight EPS shortfall and higher product costs highlight ongoing profitability pressures. Management's guidance for modest EPS growth in 2026 and the emphasis on import/export dynamics suggest the company is targeting tax-related efficiencies to help offset cost headwinds.
The results and guidance are particularly relevant to investors tracking consumer staples and tobacco sector fundamentals, and they bear on equity valuations where analysts incorporate volume trends, tax efficiencies, and cost trajectories into forward earnings models.