The Big Idea: Fortis Charging Toward New Highs

Fortis Inc. (NYSE/TSX: FTS) is flashing a buy-the-dip signal for utilities bulls. After a multi-week rally, FTS has gently pulled back into the $56.80–$57.80 range – right around its rising 20/50/200-day moving averages. This shallow correction in an otherwise grinding uptrend is exactly the kind of “trend pullback” opportunity technical traders love. We believe Fortis’ share price is poised to resume its climb toward new highs in the next week. In fact, our price-target of $61.30 implies a ~7.8% gain – well within reach if Fortis can muster just average follow-through. The company’s fundamentals justify the optimism.

Fortis is described as “a diversified leader in the North American regulated electric and gas utility industry,” and it has the balance sheet and growth plan to match (www.globenewswire.com). The latest results and strategic announcements show Fortis is not standing still. In February 2026, it reported growing earnings and rate-base expansion – $1.7 billion in 2025 net income (≈ $3.40/share) and faster Adjusted EPS than a year earlier (www.globenewswire.com). More importantly, Fortis is plowing billions into infrastructure. Its newly unveiled 5-year capital program totals $26 billion, the largest in company history (www.globenewswire.com). This kind of investment is fueling around 6–7% annual rate base growth through the end of the decade (www.globenewswire.com). The result? Steady revenue and profit growth well into the future. On top of that, Fortis still raises its dividend year after year – over 50 straight annual hikes and counting (www.globenewswire.com / www.fortisinc.com).

In short: Fortis offers the profit stability of a regulated utility with the upside momentum of a growth stock. The shares have already ripped ~32% higher in the past year, yet the uptrend is far from exhausted. If the market is truly set up for more defensive rotation (or simply for a return to growth stocks), Fortis should be a prime beneficiary and is likely to break out again above the 52-week peak. That’s why we’re targeting a move to $61.30 over the next week or two, with a logical stop at $55.70 just under the swing low.

What’s Changed / Why Now

In recent weeks, Fortis has quietly built a compelling narrative beneath the surface of its pullback. The big news flow has been positive:

  • Record Capital Plan: Fortis’s Sept 2024 announcement of a $26 billion five-year capex outlook made big headlines (www.globenewswire.com). That plan underpins multiple years of growth: roughly 6.5% annual rate-base growth is expected through 2029, driven largely by transmission projects (via ITC Holdings) and customer growth in Alberta (www.globenewswire.com). Investors now know Fortis isn’t standing pat – it’s aggressively expanding its regulated fleet, which should translate into higher future earnings.
  • Dividend Reassurance: Alongside capex, Fortis raised its dividend yet again. The Q4 2024 payout was up 4.2%, marking an incredible 51 consecutive years of annual increases (www.globenewswire.com). Even if the stock’s growth is modest, the income stream is rock-solid and growing, which supports a healthy bottom for the share price.
  • Earnings Momentum: The latest quarter (Q4/2025) and full-year results, released in mid-February 2026, confirmed Fortis’s growth trajectory (www.globenewswire.com). Net earnings hit $1.7 billion for 2025 ($3.40/share), with adjusted EPS rising to $3.53 from $3.28 a year earlier. On a per-share basis, that’s a healthy upswing – and it came on the back of $5.6 billion in 2025 capex that grew the utility rate base about 7% (www.globenewswire.com). Put simply, Fortis’s investments are paying off in higher regulated returns.
  • Regulatory Tailwinds: Many of Fortis’s utilities are in stable regulatory environments, meaning rate increases are usually approved to cover costs. Management indicated that certain retroactive impacts and base-ROE adjustments are mostly behind it, setting the stage for smoother sailing in 2026. Future rate cases (e.g. in Arizona, Alberta, New York) could bring additional upside as regulators recognize new investment needs.

All told, Fortis entered March 2026 with clearly higher earnings and an emboldened growth plan. In the current climate – with Federal Reserve rate rises largely behind us and Treasury yields plateauing – defensive growth stories are coming back into favor. Utility stocks, after lagging for much of late 2022–2024, are on the upswing again. Fortis’s blend of growth and safety makes it especially attractive on any market “risk-off” rotation or even the next Fed pivot headlines.

Catalysts Ahead

The next week looks ripe with opportunities to propel Fortis higher. Key catalysts include:

  • Upcoming MISO and Regulatory Decisions: Fortis’s U.S. subsidiaries could see important regulatory rulings on transmission ROE or new rate filings. Any positive news from the Midcontinent ISO (MISO) on allowed transmission returns would directly lift Fortis’s ITC earnings.
  • Bond Market Stability / Fed Moves: With the Fed likely on hold (or even hinting at cuts later in 2026), yields may ease off plateau levels. Lower real yields or a dovish central bank pivot would reduce valuation pressure on utilities.
  • Earnings Season Confirmation: While the next quarterly release is a couple of months away, Fortis might host investor days or pre-earnings guidance in March/April. Bullish reaffirmation of 2026 guidance or small upward tweaks could spark a significant rally.
  • Sector Rotation into Utilities: If broader indices run into overhead resistance or volatility, fund managers often switch into dependable sectors. Fortis, given its Canadian listing plus NYSE presence, is an easy way for U.S. and Canadian investors alike to play that theme.
  • Dividend Reinvestment and DRIP Programs: Fortis funds part of its capex via its dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP) (www.globenewswire.com). That built-in support can provide a baseline bid under the share price, especially at pullback levels like we see now.

The Numbers That Matter

To quantify the bull case:

  • Earnings Acceleration: Fortis’s annual adjusted EPS jumped to $3.53 in 2025 from $3.28 in 2024 (www.globenewswire.com). That’s over 7.6% growth in one year in a regulated business – very healthy.
  • Rising Rate Base: 2025 capex was $5.6 billion, fueling about 7% rate-base growth. Earlier announcements project roughly 6.5% annual base growth through 2029 (www.globenewswire.com).
  • Dividend Growth: Fortis extended its dividend again. The Q4 2024 hike was +4.2%, the 51st year of consecutive increases. Dividend guidance remains a steady 4–6% annual raise through 2029 (www.globenewswire.com). Current yield is modest (~3%), but this policy adds to investor appeal.
  • Cash Flow Backing Growth: Fortis has ample cash flow. Its total assets (~$54.5B) exceed liabilities (~$35.7B), and it maintains investment-grade credit. This financial heft supports aggressive capex while keeping credit ratings stable.
  • Stock Performance: The shares have already climbed ~32% in the past year and about 17% in six months. The stock only briefly poked above its prior 52-week high (~$57.93) before pulling back. A breakout beyond that point could carry the stock to our $61.3 target.

Technical/Price Action Context

The charts reinforce the bullish bias. Fortis is well within a rising-trend channel, riding above its 20- and 50-day moving averages – classic uptrend territory. Even the 200-day line is sloping up sharply (around $50.77), showing the three major timeframes agree: prices should head higher.

Recently, FTS stalled around $57–58, forming a tight consolidation. This is exactly the kind of “flag” or pullback pattern technicians love in a strong trend: a brief rest followed by a breakout continuation. The volume profile suggests traders are simply waiting for the right entry zone. Our suggested entry range $56.80–57.80 lies right on this area of support and consolidation. Buying near the low-50s moving average reduces risk while capturing maximum upside potential.

We’d place a protective stop at $55.70, just below the recent swing low. That level is a logical pivot: a breach there would break the uptrend and shift the technical picture to negative (likely dragging it back toward the 50-day average around ~$53–54). But as long as $55.70 holds, everything points to continuation. A break above $57.93 (the prior 52-week high) on heavy volume would be the trigger for a measured move toward $61.3 – about the height of the prior rally added on top of the consolidation (roughly a $3.4 rally above 57.9). In other words, the target is a conservative extension given the existing momentum.

Additional indicators reinforce the idea that this isn’t an overbought blow-off. FTS’s 14-day RSI sits in the high 60s – strong, but not yet extreme. Seasonal patterns in utilities also favor spring strength, as regulators tend to finalize budgets and construction season kicks in. Combined with Fortis’s visible pipeline of new projects, the technicals line up for fresh demand.

In short, the technical setup – defined entry, clear stop, realistic target – dovetails perfectly with the fundamental bull case. It lets us leg into a high-conviction trade: if Fortis can resume its uptrend from here, it should hit our target well before the horizon on March 16, 2026.

Risks & What Could Go Wrong

No bull thesis is without risk. Key dangers to watch include:

  • Interest Rate Volatility: Regulated utilities can trade down if interest rates spike unexpectedly. Even if earnings are healthy, a sudden jump in bond yields could compress Fortis’s valuation multiple.
  • Broad Market Sell-Off: A generic risk-off event (e.g. geopolitical shock, credit scare) could pull down defensive names along with everything else. Low overall risk appetite might delay Fortis’s breakout, even if fundamentals remain sound.
  • Technical Breakdown: Our plan hinges on not violating $55.70. If that level cracks, it may signal the pullback has turned into a reversal, and Fortis could retest the 50-day moving average (~$53) or worse.
  • Regulatory Delays: Fortis’s growth depends on approved rate hikes and timely project approvals. If key regulators delay or cut into projected returns (e.g. a lower ROE granted in a major rate case), the earnings outlook would weaken.

Bottom Line

Fortis has all the ingredients of a high-probability bullish setup. It’s an established utility giant operating in stable jurisdictions, yet it’s growing fast thanks to a record capital program (www.globenewswire.com). The company just beat earnings on top of growth, it raised dividends again, and it announced years of above-average expansion. Meanwhile, the stock’s own chart shows a well-defined pullback within an uptrend – precisely the scenario where technical breakouts often accelerate.

We see the current $56.8–57.8 range as a sweet spot to initiate fresh longs for March. A trigger above $57.93 should set off a rally toward our $61.3 target. That’s a ~7.8% gain over the next week, well within the stock’s swing range given its recent annualized volatility (~1% daily ATR) and constructive environment. Our stop at $55.70 is just below last week’s low – a clear invalidation line if the rally fizzles.

In short, the odds favor the bulls here. If you want to own defense with upside, Fortis’s fuse is primed. Put it all together – rock-solid dividend history, accelerating earnings, massive capex fueling growth, and a textbook technical base – and you have a setup that’s hard to ignore. We give this trade a high-conviction “buy the pullback” grade, with a comfortable cushion for risk management.

Trade Idea: Buy FTS in the $56.80–57.80 zone (scale in if needed), stop out at $55.70, target $61.30. High-confidence setup in a low-risk-rate environment, expecting ~7.8% upside as Fortis resumes its breakout.

Not financial advice: This is a bullish trading idea based on technical and fundamental analysis. Always do your own research before investing—use stops and manage risk appropriately.

Sources: Official Fortis news releases and financial reports (www.globenewswire.com; www.fortisinc.com)