Daily Pick: FTS (2026-02-26)

Pick Tracking

Hourly snapshots of price and risk metrics since the first tracking record.

Adjustments

Stop Loss Adjustment

Feb 26, 2026 10:00 AM

Tightened stop to lock gains at break-even to protect profits

Stop Loss: $54.85 → $56.45

Stop Loss Adjustment

Feb 26, 2026 2:01 PM

Tightened stop to lock gains at 56.75 to protect open profit.

Stop Loss: $56.45 → $56.75

Stop Loss Adjustment

Feb 27, 2026 5:34 PM

Tightened stop to lock gains based on current price and volatility.

Stop Loss: $56.75 → $56.94

Stop Loss Adjustment

Mar 2, 2026 8:10 AM

Tightened stop to lock gains at +1.25% level above entry price

Stop Loss: $56.94 → $57.16

Trade Thesis

Trend-pullback setup with price holding the recent dip area (56.10–56.34 zone from recent lows) and pressing back toward prior resistance near the mid-60s; a mean reversion back toward the 60 handle offers a clean, swingable path with a structural stop under the recent selloff low.

Key Risks

Broader risk-off tape can pressure defensive/utility names and delay the rebound.
Failure to hold the 56.10 area would break the pullback structure and likely invite continuation lower.
Rate-sensitive rotation can cap upside even if the chart stabilizes.

Fortis Inc. (FTS): Primed for a 6.6% Bounce to $60.40

A trend-pullback into the mid-$56s on strong Q4/FY2025 results and a $28.8B five-year capex plan sets up a swing trade to $60.40 with a tight stop.

The Big Idea

North American utility Fortis (NYSE/TSX: FTS) has been on a tear (+28% in the last year) thanks to aggressive infrastructure investment and rock-solid regulated profits. A brief pullback into the $56 area is holding on support, setting up an ideal launchpad. Fortis unveiled blowout Q4/FY2025 results (adjusted EPS $3.53 vs. $3.28 prior), backed by record capital spending. Management's new five-year capex plan ($28.8B) targets 7% annual rate-base growth into 2030. Combine this with a 52-year streak of annual dividend increases (51 years by end-2024 as referenced) and exposure to booming demand projects (Arizona data centers, MISO transmission upgrades), and Fortis reads as a defensive growth engine. The recent dip to ~$56 is just a breather in a broader uptrend and a clear buying opportunity. From the $56.10$56.90 entry zone, a quick 6.6% swing to $60.40 by early March is presented as realistic, with a tight stop around $54.85 just below the recent low.

What Changed / Why Now

The fundamental story hasn changed materially; Fortis remains fundamentally strong. In mid-February Fortis reported strong Q4 and full-year 2025 results: adjusted EPS rose to $3.53 (up 7.6%) on the back of $5.6B of capex (7% rate-base growth) and the company raised its dividend (+4.1% in Q4, the 52nd straight year). Management then announced an expanded $28.8B five-year investing plan (up from $26B), driving a 7% CAGR in rate base through 2030. The recent pullback into the mid-$56s after fresh highs looks like a classic trend-pullback: shares found support around $56.10. The chart structure low held and price began rebounding toward $58. The combination of expanding capex, demand projects and technical support is presented as making now an ideal entry.

Catalysts Ahead

A flurry of near-term and long-term drivers could propel FTS higher. Key catalysts include:

Earnings momentum: Upcoming reports (Q1 2026 and beyond) should continue to reflect rate-base growth; analysts will watch for positive guidance.
Infrastructure projects: U.S. utilities are benefiting from megaprojects such as a ~300 MW data center power deal in Tucson and multi-billion-dollar MISO transmission projects.
Rate case developments: Decisions on allowed returns in Arizona/Kansas (e.g., a reported ~9.57% allowed ROE signal for UNS Gas) could materially raise rates and lift earnings if approved.
Dividend inflows: Fortis's ~3.5% yield and long streak of raises could attract yield-seeking flows if bond yields stabilize.
Clean energy tailwinds: Integration of renewables and storage (for example, the Roadrunner 200 MW battery at TEP and plans to convert 800 MW of coal to gas by 2030) supports long-term growth.

The Numbers That Matter

Key metrics highlighted:

EPS growth: 2025 adjusted EPS $3.53 (vs. $3.28 in 2024), a 7.6% increase. Q4 delivered $0.90 adj. EPS (up 8.4% YoY).
Capex/Rate-base: Record $5.6B capex in 2025 (vs. $5.2B in 2024), lifting mid-year rate base by 7%. The 2026 plan ($28.8B) is expected to boost rate base from ~ $42B to ~$58B by 2030 (about 7% annualized).
Dividend: Q4 2025 common dividend raised by 4.1%, marking the 52nd consecutive year of increases. Current yield is around 3.5%.
Share performance: Fortis has shown substantial gains (up ~29% year-to-date and nearly 24% total return over the past 12 months as cited).
Valuation: The stock is cited trading around 20.

Technical/Price Action Context

FTS's chart is described as a textbook uptrend-pullback pattern. After hitting a 52-week high (around $57.37) earlier this month, the stock pulled back to test the $56.10. This level sits just above the rising 50-day moving average (~$53) and acted as support, confirming the dip is a breather. Buyers stepped in at the stated entry range and price pushed from $57 back toward last month's highs. Momentum indicators (RSI ~68) are strong but not yet overheated. A move through $58 opens path to $60. The structural stop is clear: a close below $56.10 would break the pullback pattern; the recommended stop is set at $54.85 (just under the recent low).

Risks & What Could Go Wrong

Key dangers called out include:

Broader market risk-off: A market swoon from Fed surprises or geopolitical shocks could pressure Fortis despite its defensive profile.
Support failure: A close under ~$56.10 would invalidate the pullback thesis and could send the stock toward $54 or lower.
Interest rates: A sudden spike in Treasury yields or hawkish central bank news could cap utility multiples and mute upside.
Regulatory pitfalls: Unexpected regulatory rulings, lower allowed ROEs, delays in rate recovery, or cost overruns on large projects could dent the outlook.
Valuation ceiling: After a near-30% rally, Fortis is not inexpensive; investor expectations could limit further multiple expansion.

Bottom Line

Fortis is presented as a balanced, low-volatility utility flashing a textbook buy signal. The trend-pullback into the mid-$56s lines up with accelerating earnings, record capex, and a long dividend streak. If $56 holds as support, the thesis expects a swift retracement to $60.40 (+6.6%) within a two-week/early-March horizon. The trade plan: buy in at $56.10$56.90, set a stop at $54.85, and target $60.40.

Not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.

Key Catalysts

Earnings momentum: continued reflection of rate-base growth in upcoming reports (Q1 2026 and beyond)
Infrastructure projects: large contracted loads (e.g., ~300 MW data center power deal in Tucson) and MISO transmission projects
Rate case developments: potential increases in allowed returns (e.g., reported ~9.57% ROE signal for UNS Gas) that could raise rates
Dividend inflows: ~3.5% yield and 50+ years of dividend increases attracting yield-seeking flows if bond yields stabilize
Clean energy tailwinds: renewables and storage projects (e.g., Roadrunner 200 MW battery at TEP, plans to convert 800 MW of coal to gas by 2030)

Why This Trade Plan Makes Sense

Entry Logic

Buy in the $56.10$56.90 entry range cited in the article because that zone held technical support and buyers stepped in there.

Stop Logic

Set a tight stop at $54.85 (just under the recent low) because a close below $56.10 would break the pullback pattern; the $54.85 stop sits beneath that structural low.

Target Logic

Target $60.40 (a 6.6% gain) based on prior resistance near $60, recent swing areas, and the expectation of a swift retracement if $56 support holds.

Time Horizon Logic

Short-term swing: the article specifies a two-week / early-March horizon (a near-term rally within the next few weeks).

Risks & What Could Go Wrong

Broader market risk-off: a market sell-off (e.g., Fed surprises or geopolitical shocks) could pressure even defensive utilities.
Support failure: a close under ~$56.10 would invalidate the pullback thesis and could push shares toward $54 or lower.
Interest rates: a sudden spike in Treasury yields or hawkish central bank moves could cap utility multiples and mute upside.
Regulatory pitfalls: unexpected regulatory rulings, lower allowed ROEs, delays in rate recovery, or cost overruns on large projects could hurt earnings.
Valuation ceiling: after a near-30% rally, investor expectations and valuation limits could constrain further upside.

Not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly. Investing involves risk; positions can lose value.

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Pick Tracking

Adjustments

Stop Loss Adjustment

Stop Loss Adjustment

Stop Loss Adjustment

Stop Loss Adjustment

Trade Thesis

Key Risks

Fortis Inc. (FTS): Primed for a 6.6% Bounce to $60.40

The Big Idea

What Changed / Why Now

Catalysts Ahead

The Numbers That Matter

Technical/Price Action Context

Risks & What Could Go Wrong

Bottom Line

Key Catalysts

Why This Trade Plan Makes Sense

Entry Logic

Stop Logic

Target Logic

Time Horizon Logic

Risks & What Could Go Wrong