TRX Gold Q3 2026 Earnings Call - Record EBITDA and Self-Funded Expansion Signal Valuation Disconnect
Summary
TRX Gold delivered a quarter that screams operational leverage. Buckreef posted record revenue of $33 million and adjusted EBITDA of $21 million, driven by a 60% jump in production to over 7,400 ounces. The company is executing a $50 million expansion of the mill and tailings facility entirely from internal cash flow, positioning for a theoretical throughput of 5,500 tons per day. Management is doubling down on growth, targeting EBITDA run rates above $80 million annualized and potentially exceeding $200 million within three years, while an updated PEA is slated for Q4 2026.
The narrative tension sits between the balance sheet strength and the stock price action. With $27 million in cash, zero debt, and no warrants, TRX is financially bulletproof. However, the CEO directly challenged the market mechanics, citing opaque selling pressure, naked shorting risks, and unprecedented options activity as drivers of the stock's disconnect from fundamentals. Meanwhile, government negotiations in Tanzania for a more favorable joint venture structure are advancing, and a fresh exploration program targeting nine new geophysical anomalies is set to drill next week, adding optionality to the resource base.
Key Takeaways
- Record Financial Performance: Q3 adjusted EBITDA hit $21 million, revenue reached $33 million, and GAAP net income was $8.4 million. Annualized EBITDA run rate exceeds $80 million, underscoring strong leverage to the gold price.
- Production Momentum: Output surpassed 7,400 ounces in Q3, up 60% year-over-year. LTM production stands at nearly 28,000 ounces. The company has already met the low end of its 25,000 to 30,000 ounce full-year guidance and targets the top of that range.
- Self-Funded Expansion: A $50 million capital program is underway, anchored by a new 3,500 tons per day SAG and ball mill. The expansion is funded entirely through operating cash flow, with $6 million to $8 million already spent and no need for external debt.
- Cost Efficiency and Margins: Cash costs remain disciplined between $1,400 and $1,600 per ounce. Gross margins are healthy at roughly 60%, with expectations for further reductions as the new mill, ADR plant, and oxygen system come online to improve recovery and throughput.
- Valuation Update Imminent: An updated Preliminary Economic Assessment is expected in Q4 2026. The current study shows a pre-tax NPV of $1.9 billion at $4,000 gold. Management anticipates significant upgrades due to higher capacity, lower costs, and expanded resources.
- Balance Sheet Fortitude: The company holds $27 million in cash, maintains working capital above $36 million, and carries no debt or warrants. Undrawn credit lines are available, though management sees no immediate necessity to utilize them.
- Government Relations Progress: Negotiations with the Tanzanian government regarding the 55/45 STAMICO joint venture are advancing. Management is seeking terms comparable to major peers, such as an 80/20 split, and expresses confidence in a successful outcome despite political timelines.
- Exploration Ramp-Up: A comprehensive geophysics study identified nine to ten new drilling targets. Exploration drilling begins next week with four to five rigs on site. Assays are expected to return in Q4 2026, focusing on Stamford Bridge, Anfield, and the Main Zone.
- Inventory Buffer for Q4: Management highlighted a significant buildup of inventory, with 1,600 ounces in CIL tanks and over 19,000 ounces on the ROM pad. This inventory will be drawn down in Q4 to supplement production and potentially set a record quarter.
- Market Structure Critique: CEO Stephen Mullowney addressed the stock price decline by pointing to market mechanics rather than fundamentals. He cited opaque selling pressure, potential naked shorting, and high levels of out-of-the-money call options as factors distorting the stock price away from the company's operational reality.
- Fuel Supply Stability: Despite geopolitical tensions involving the Strait of Hormuz, management reports ample diesel supply in Tanzania. Renegotiated contracts have not resulted in price squeezes, and operations remain secure.
- Capital Allocation Strategy: Reinvestment takes precedence over dividends or buybacks. Management argues that returning capital now yields lower returns than reinvesting to grow EBITDA from $80 million to over $200 million. Buybacks remain a potential tool for the future if market conditions warrant.
Full Transcript
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Hello, good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to today’s presentation. My name is Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator here at Renmark Financial Communications. On behalf of our team, we’d like to thank everyone for joining us today for TRX Gold Corporation’s third quarter 2026 results. TRX Gold is trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol TRX, on the NYSE American under the ticker symbol TRX. Presenting today is Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, Michael Leonard, Chief Financial Officer, Khalaf Rashid, Senior Vice President, Tanzania, and Richard Boffey, Chief Operating Officer. The presentation will last approximately 20 to 25 minutes and will be followed by a formal Q&A session, for which you can participate in using the chat box on the top right-hand corner of your screen. I will now hand it over to Stephen.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Thank you, welcome everybody to today’s Q3 corporate presentation of results. Richard is not on the line yet. I was just talking to him on top of the TSF. He’s making his way back to the office. He should join us in about 5 to 10 minutes’ time. He’s at Buckreef today. As Julia mentioned, Michael and Khalaf are here with me as well. We’re coming back in Toronto today. I was in Tennessee and Texas last week. I should have stayed there, given that I came home to 38, 40 degrees. Now we have yellow skies. Apparently the big campfires up north have blanketed us up with smoke. Anyways, it was pleasant to be down in the U.S. last week. Without further ado, Julia. Here’s Richard. Richard is joining us now from Buckreef.
How are you doing today, Richard?
Richard Boffey, Chief Operating Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Afternoon, everybody. Apologies for being late. Just got back from a little bit of an inspection.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Yeah, exactly. I was telling them that you were talking to me on top of the TSF. If we can go to slide number four. Excellent. Oh, no. You’re skipping all the way down. Yes, there we go. Obviously, the prior slide was forward-looking statements. There will be some forward-looking statements today in this presentation. With regards to Buckreef Gold, we had a great third quarter. We’ve actually had a good start to the year, nine months to the year. Our goal here at TRX Gold is to rapidly develop the Buckreef Gold Project into a world-class mining operation. It is today a world-class mining operation, and is expanding quite rapidly.
We’ll get through the details of that now in a few minutes with the mill expansion, TSF expansions, and other enhancements that are going on at Buckreef, as well as the exploration programs. A little summary on the year to date. We’ve done almost 28,000 ounces for an LTM period. That’s starting Q4 of last year to the end of Q3 this year, with $115 million of revenue and a healthy $66.8 million of adjusted EBITDA. This is what gives us confidence in funding our expansion projects. In that time period, we’ve made significant capital investments, as per the press release this morning. We’ve made almost, I believe, $47, $48 million of investments over the last 12 months, both in working capital, which we’ve normalized now. That investment will no longer go forward in around $17, $18 million, and the rest on CapEx.
The focus now going forward is on CapEx and exploration. The Buckreef Project is anchored by 1.5 million ounces at around 2.5 grams a ton. We’re online with the PEA that was released last year, with first-year production of around 27,000 ounces. As I mentioned in the press release, we’ve already achieved our guidance of 25,000-30,000 ounces as of today, and expecting to be within that range as we get through Q4, more than likely towards the top of that range. With regards to the CapEx program that was in that PEA, the first part of that PEA was mill expansion. That mill has been ordered. Richard will get into that in a few minutes. That capital project is well underway and planning is done, and it’s now starting to be executed.
I will remind people, I know I’m going to get a lot of questions around stock price. We’re going to address that later in valuation and things of that nature. The pre-tax NPV on the study that was released in May of last year was $1.9 billion at $4,000 gold. That study is now being updated with the new capacity as well as the new mine plan. The mine plan will drive the throughput rates. We expect to have excess capacity. It’s going to be up to us to figure out how we’re going to fill it. It’s certainly going to be well above the 3,000 tons per day that were in the prior PEA study. What does that mean? That more than likely means a higher NAV.
It also, with the increase in gold price, should drive higher resources, but that work is yet to be finalized, and it will be finalized in the next couple of months. We expect that PEA to be released in Q4 of calendar 2026. Can we go to the next slide, Julie? As I said, our focus is growing the underlying valuation metrics. Valuation works by having certain multiples. The multiples go up and down depending on markets. Multiples are compressed on EBITDA basis with the gold price decline in this last couple of months. We expect those to get to normalize over time. What the market does is say, "Okay, you have a little bit of a decrease in gold price, so EBITDA will be coming down, so we have to adjust the forward multiples. That’s typical of what happens in a market adjustment.
Our EBITDA will continue to grow. It will grow as a result of an increase in production over time. We’re very comfortable at today’s gold price of $4,000 an ounce. As I mentioned, the expansion is underway, it’s a renewed 3,500 ton per day SAG and ball mill that will operate with the existing optimized and upgraded plant operating alongside of it. We expect a margin or cost reductions, particularly on the processing side of things, Richard will get into that in a minute, with this improved scale, as well as the enhancements that have been made. For instance, we put in place an oxygen plant that reduces chemicals such as hydrogen peroxide to get the oxygenation up. We’re going to continue to be a low-cost operation going forward. Our margins are quite healthy.
With regards to NAV, we’ve just discussed that with regards to updating the PEA to give a good sense of what the Buckreef main zone can be, and it will be revised, and that will be put into the market in Q4 2026. Also, we’ll get into an exploration program. The geophysics study is done. We now are going to start to just drill out some targets there, as well as go back to prior targets such as Stamford Bridge and Anfield, to hopefully grow the resource base. There are some significant good targets around this property, and that drill bits will start to really ramp up soon, and assays will start to flow into the market shortly thereafter. We have a proven track record of doing these expansions. This is our fourth expansion.
We are a self-funded model with a very improved balance sheet, $27 million of cash, significant EBITDA, significant working capital build-up, and undrawn credit lines. We can go out and get further credit lines or credit facilities if we want to. They’re offered to us every day. We just don’t see the need to do that today. It’s very easy to get a credit facility in the $50 million-$100 million range at Buckreef at this point in time. Right now we don’t see a need to put that onto the balance sheet. We are located in Tanzania, where we’re able to get things done. There’s a lot of geology in the area. We’re also looking at other properties in the area as well, as we have discussions with government. We have right now a large, high-quality resource base. Next slide, please.
Now I’m going to hand it over to Mike. Richard will also poke in on some of the things around processing cost and some of the other items around operations. Mike and Richard, over to you guys. Mike, please take the lead.
Michael Leonard, Chief Financial Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Well, thanks, Stephen, good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us here today. Richard, looks like you may have some connectivity issues. I’ll do my best to talk to the processing cost improvements that you touched on earlier, Stephen. Q3, you mentioned it at the outset. It was a very, very strong quarter for us, both operationally and financially. The plant, as you will have seen, achieved record quarterly throughput of 1,690 tons per day of throughput. That was not only an increase from last year’s prior year comparative, but also last quarter. We also achieved a grade of about 1.96 gram a ton for the quarter. Importantly, recovery continues to improve.
Year over year, you would have seen recovery increase from 67% last year to almost 85% this year as we make some of those metallurgical improvements that Stephen touched on, as well as upgrades to our 2,000 ton a day plant. We commissioned things like a thickener, an oxygen plant, and an Acacia Reactor this quarter. We’re bringing online additional improvements like an ADR plant and gold room in the coming quarters. We expect both recovery and throughput to continue to improve. Those benefits that we saw this quarter through the mill drove gold production of over 7,400 ounces this quarter. That’s up almost 60% relative to the prior year comparative period.
You couple that with a Q3 realized gold price of over $4,700 an ounce, which was up 50% from the prior year. We recorded revenue of almost $33 million, which obviously is a significant year-over-year improvement on the back of both higher production and higher gold prices. The company continues to demonstrate leverage to that high gold price environment. Illustratively, Buckreef continues to show that it’s a low-cost, high-margin operation. Stephen touched on it early. At an average cash cost on a full-year basis of between $14 and $1,600, we’ve been able to produce gross profit margins of almost $20 million for the quarter. We’re running at about a 60% gross margin ratio. Now, with that all said, there is an opportunity for margin to continue to improve as we go. You will see mining costs at just over $3 a ton.
That started to normalize this quarter from about $4 a ton last quarter following the signing of a new contract mining arrangement. On the processing cost per ton side, we are up over $25 a ton, as Stephen mentioned, using things like hydrogen peroxide and other consumables and reagents to maximize recovery and consequently produce more gold. As these plant improvements and enhancements continue to come online at a nameplate normalized capacity, we expect that cost per ton to come down and consequently margin to improve and expand. With that all said, I mentioned that we show leverage to gold price. We did record a record GAAP net income number of $8.4 million for the quarter, and very importantly, a record adjusted EBITDA number of almost $21 million. That’s a record for the company.
If you annualize that, I know Stephen touched on the last 12 months of being about $66 million, but if you annualize this quarter’s EBITDA, you end up at over $80 million, which puts us in a really, really good position to fund and execute our growth plan and our capital plan. You couple that with our working capital position, we reported working capital of 2.2 times or over $36 million. We got a cash position of almost $27 million. Stephen touched on the undrawn credit lines. Again, really well-positioned to fund our capital plan. Just sort of looking forward, we did report a record buildup in-circuit inventory in the CIL tanks this quarter as we worked on metallurgical improvements and enhancements. We’ve got almost 1,600 ounces in those tanks at the end of Q3, coupled with a ROM pad stockpile of over 19,000 ounces.
The expectation in Q4 is to draw down on some of that inventory to help supplement and benefit production into Q4. In looking at our full year guidance numbers, we reported full year guidance of between 25,000 and 30,000 ounces. We’ve already achieved the low end of our guidance range as of today. We achieved our full year guidance numbers but, over the next six weeks, we expect to continue to produce at these levels, draw down on inventory and what we hope is have a record production quarter for Q4. Finally, I’ll just touch on the cash cost. We continue to be right in the middle of that $1,400-$1,600 an ounce cash cost range, which again, is in part what’s driving that significant gross margin that we’re seeing this quarter.
All in all, a record quarter, both financially and operationally, and the cash flow and EBITDA that we’re generating positions us very well to fund our capital plan and growth plan going forward. Stephen, back to you.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Excellent. Thank you. With regards to next slide, Julia or Mike. With regards to rapid EBITDA growth, as I mentioned, the project is being expanded again. Obviously with higher throughput, you’re going to get higher results and higher EBITDA going forward. This is our fourth expansion. With regards to the CapEx plans that we have around this over the next 12-18 months, we have roughly a $50 million budget, which includes $30 million for the new mill. That includes the actual mill and all the other workings. The TSF will be around $10 million. That will be a plan for predominantly the life of the mine, which is great because we’re currently doing it in pods. We have sustaining capital of around $10 million.
Of that $50 million, about I would think around $6 million-$8 million has already been spent, and the rest of it will be paid for over the next 12-18 months out of cash flow. If we do have bulges in that CapEx, which we don’t anticipate too many, we have those undrawn credit lines to smooth out any of those bulges. We’re quite comfortable with that, and we’re quite comfortable that we’re going to get to a much higher EBITDA number as a result of executing that plan. It’s a very reasonable plan, and it’s well planned out and it is starting really rapidly. Mike, anything to add to that? I know Richard’s not on the line.
Michael Leonard, Chief Financial Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: No, I think you summarized it pretty well. Again, hopefully folks get a sense for annualized EBITDA run rates of $80-plus million against a capital profile that you’ve just mentioned. Again, positions us very well to fund it over the next 12-18 months over using cash flow from operations.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Thus, the forward EBITDA is going to be very significant as per the PEA numbers released in May 2025. In the next couple of years, in say, 24-36 months, you’re looking at well over $200 million of potential EBITDA. A significant increase in profitability. Next slide, please. With regards to this is the same slide, isn’t it? Yeah. Okay. With regards to the PEA, I’ll just go over some of those numbers. Like I said, the PEA is being updated, we expect these numbers to be better. Take a look at the cash cost with scale. Cash cost comes down. Mike is referencing around $1,400 cash cost in the study, we’re at around $1,000, it’s going to be expanded even larger than that now.
I would expect cash cost to be around the same, as well as all-in sustaining cost and the pre-tax NPVs, where hopefully our goal is to get these significantly higher as well, with annual production hopefully ranging in the range of anywhere from 80,000-100,000 ounces over time. Next slide, please. As I mentioned, look, we are on track with our PEA, particularly in the capital build around the expanded plant. If you look at year one here, you had 27,000 ounces of production. We’re already into that range. Year two has around 38,000. We’re well on track with regards to the profile or PEA. PEA was always contemplated. Do the plant first, expand that, expand your mining operations at the same time, particularly open pit. It was originally envisioned here three years.
We expect that to go on longer, then go into your underground development, all self-funded. That’s why we didn’t release an IRR, because it’s infinite. If you want to put an IRR on that $1, then it would be exponential. It’s a very good plan here that’s been put in place by Richard and the team, and are well through the execution on that. Can we go to the next slide? With regards to increasing the resource base Tanzania has a lot of resources. We are in one of the better resources in the inner arc of the Lake Victoria Greenstone Belt, and a lot of other major assets in the area. Khalaf will get into it in a second with how we discuss these sort of things with government.
One of the things is there are a lot of resources that may or may not become available over time in Tanzania that we wouldn’t mind taking a look at. Next slide, please. Richard, I’m going to turn this over to you with regards to exploration and where we’re planning. There was never a geophysics study done at Buckreef, now that there is one, you now have a much better sense of where to go.
Richard Boffey, Chief Operating Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Thanks, Stephen. Hi, everybody. There were geophysics studies done in the past by IAMGOLD and Anglo over the past 20 or 30 years, for one reason or another, a lot of the raw data was missing, and a lot of the test work that was done was for looking at very shallow deposits. As we’ve found in Main Zone and Stamford Bridge, these things are a lot deeper. We came to the conclusion that starting again with pretty much the standard geophysical approach to most of these Archean gold systems would give us some new targets and probably confirm some of our existing targets. That’s exactly what’s happened. Over the last three quarters, we’ve done a detailed magnetic survey, followed up by an electroresistivity pole-to-dipole survey, followed up again with overlaps on the highs and anomalies from those two on a dipole-to-dipole survey.
From that, we’ve now given ourselves about nine or 10 strong targets that we’ve developed drill programs for. The first of those targets will be drilled next week, basically. We should be hopefully moving the drill on there about Monday. Yeah, we’re pretty excited to see all of that, and we’ve got to do a lot of strategizing now with the resources we have. We have two exploration drill rigs on-site at the moment. A third has been delayed at our port, but it’s in-country, and we’re expecting it any week now. That’ll immediately go to work on Stamford Bridge. Then a fourth drill rig is sitting in China at the port, ready to come over to us. We’ve got an option now on a fifth.
Yeah, we’re pretty excited about getting into these new targets and getting into some of the stuff that was never really drilled properly at Anfield and a few other areas as well. There’s a lot going on with exploration in the coming months, and we expect that we’ll start getting some assays back on some of these nine anomalies from the geophysics starting in August. We’ll probably have our first round of drilling done, I would suggest, in September, with results out in October.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: There’s a lot of drilling to happen coming up with four to five drill rigs on-site potentially turning, which is great. Part of that will be with regards to ongoing operations, part of that is on the exploration program. With regard to Stamford Bridge, I won’t go over this again. As Richard mentioned, it will be subject of the new drill rig that’s in-country that will get started on this area again. Expecting to see a very robust program over time in and around Buckreef, and Stamford Bridge has delivered the best assay results thus far. With regards to stakeholder engagement and communication. This one, we’re going to bring it over to Khalaf, and I’ll add a few bits and pieces as well. Go ahead, Khalaf.
Khalaf Rashid, Senior Vice President, Tanzania, TRX Gold Corporation: Yeah. Thank you, Stephen. Good morning to everybody in North America, and good afternoon or evening to us in Tanzania. Just a short brief discussion update on what I would say is three focus areas for us. Really designed to reduce our risks, improve operational efficiency, and just basically avoid business disruption, and increase our opportunities in the future. When it comes down to the three main areas we’ve been focused on, community development, which is essentially all the projects that we’re doing in and around our mine site with the immediate communities around us, the wards that neighbor us. We’ve done quite a lot of work, and we have been doing for a number of years in health and education, supporting schools and some of the health centers.
Obviously, we do look at the local procurement by the immediate community and what can be supplied or what services can be provided immediately, which supports the development in our area. We work very closely with the local government authority in Geita and maintain very good relationships with them. Government engagement, as you can imagine, is hugely important in our part of the world. Relationships are important. We exist in, I would say, overly regulated environment, so maintaining and keeping good relations with government gets the mine operating better. We maintain very strong relationship with central government authorities. I personally attend a lot of the meetings with the team here, various meetings, especially on regulatory matters, so that we can provide our input and advocate for change where we find that there are things which are difficult for us to work with.
Obviously, I think, Stephen, you might want to say a little bit more about the current negotiations ongoing with the government of Tanzania. I think we’ve mentioned this a few times that we are quite, I believe, advanced. The prospect and the outcome that we want is basically better terms and more investable terms for TRX Gold. I’m sure you’ll mention that. The last bit that I would like to just sort of mention is we’ve enhanced our communication. Basically just to raise the image of TRX Gold as an investor in Tanzania, communicating different media channels about all the various benefits that come as a consequence of our investment. Particularly in creating jobs, obviously paying taxes, the procurement that has been generated from all the good work that we have done at the mine site.
We’ve communicated this across all different media, targeting all different levels of government and public. Some direct, some obviously using various channels, social media, and traditional media. We are, I would say, very visible. We’ve been very consistent with our messaging. I believe we’re in a very good position, and we are looked at in Tanzania as a thought leader. Industry, I would say one of the more high-profile operators in Tanzania. Yeah.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Yeah.
Khalaf Rashid, Senior Vice President, Tanzania, TRX Gold Corporation: Go ahead.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: I think we’re off. Buckreef, anybody who would’ve seen is, particularly on our latest video that Richard and I did with Isaac, it’s becoming a substantial operation. It has around 1,000 employees and contractors in around site, particularly with the build at this point in time. It’s profitable, as everyone can see. With profitability, there’s royalties, taxes, and a lot of jobs. That leads well into government relations as well as we’re very keen on local content as well. We have a lot of good suppliers that we utilize in country and work well with them, and they’re very supportive of the development that is happening at Buckreef. We have an overall good relationship, and that is leading into what I’ll say is negotiations around joint venture and going forward are further along.
I still can’t give a definitive timeline on those sort of things, given it is in the political realm and politics takes a little longer. As an African saying that, "We have the watch, but they have the time." It’s an ongoing process, but we’re more confident in a successful outcome. That’s a win-win-win situation. Next slide, please. With regards to valuation, I will answer this more substantially in the Q&A portion. Obviously, valuations across the sector have come off. Not only our valuation stock price decline, but it’s come across the entire sector. This gives it an idea of we’ve fallen down versus where we were before given, I believe our decline has been further than others with regards to that. As I said, we’re constantly onto these valuation metrics of growing them, particularly EV, the EBITDA, and PNAVs, and resources.
Those are all part of the business plan. The planned expansion is EBITDA. The PNAV is new studies and better mine plans, and the resources is on exploration. All three of these buckets is being looked after in the business plan, and eventually someone will recognize it. Eventually someone will. You got to be patient, and eventually it will get there. Next slide, please. With regards to capital structure, the capital structure’s now clean and there’s no warrants outstanding. There’s $27 million of capital or cash on the balance sheet. Very little debt. There’s a few leases outstanding. That’s about it. On drawing liquidity lines, we’re in extremely good position with the cash flow that we have, as well as liquidity lines of cash to execute our business plan around CapEx to get this plant expanded.
Once this plant gets expanded, Richard will be all smiles. He likes building it, but he’ll be all smiles with all the cash flow that comes out of it as well, particularly with the higher mining. Next slide, please. The key investment highlights. We’re growing, and we’re going to continue to grow. We’re very confident in the growth. We’re going to grow EBITDA, we’re going to grow NAV, we’re going to grow resources. That’s the business plan. Quite simple. Grow, grow with internally-generated cash flow. We have a proven operational track record. Robust exploration potential, can operate in the jurisdiction that we are in, and we have a leadership team to do it, and they’re very confident. If you look at the last four quarters, they’re really good quarters. We expect that to continue going forward. Now I will hand it over to Q&A.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Excellent. Thank you all for the presentation. As mentioned, we will start the Q&A. Your first question for today is: please clarify or elaborate on the STAMICO partnership on Buckreef and how that will impact production attributable to TRX.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: With regards to the joint venture agreement and how it’s set up is the current joint venture agreement. It’s 55%-45% equity ownership. What does that mean? That means that the cash flow that’s generated at Buckreef can be reinvested to grow that business and grow the value of that business. In the board structure, TRX can determine whether there’s any dividends or not. Right now, the choice is to put the capital that’s being generated by the business back into the business to grow the business. The rationale for that is to increase the value of the overall business. When I get onto the valuation metrics, if we achieve EBITDA numbers like are in that PEA in three to four years’ time, you’ll get the EBITDA multiple on that.
If that $4,000 gold is projected to be $250 million of EBITDA, you’re going to get your valuation multiple on that. That’s a good $50 million investment for that increase in EBITDA. The same with the price, the net asset value, and revising the mine plans and putting money into exploration to increase resources. That all increases the value of the overall business, which is a benefit to TRX shareholders. It’s also a benefit to government stakeholders. In fact, there’s more jobs relative to taxes and cash flow, the government, as a result of that much larger operation. With regards to the 55/45, that comes into play after our capital loans are repaid and if we declare dividends out of Buckreef.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Excellent. Thank you for your answer, Stephen. Moving on to your next question. What is the status of the 55/45 deal?
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: The status is, as I mentioned, I mentioned this throughout the presentation, we are in discussions with government. I had discussions last week, actually, in the U.S. versus elsewhere. So we are well advanced in what we desire. Now it is for the government to go back and talk to their stakeholders in what can be done. So those discussions are moving towards that stage, is what I would say. Obviously, I have been quite clear that we would prefer to be into the framework agreement like Barrick, Perseus, and others have, which has ranged from 84%-16% non-dilutable on the government side. Some agreements are 80/20, with 20% non-dilutable on the government side. In those agreements and in their law is a 50/50 economic split, which then acts as a stabilization mechanism. Koff, anything to add to that?
Khalaf Rashid, Senior Vice President, Tanzania, TRX Gold Corporation: No, I think you summarized it well. I would say that they understand the concept. I think that they are starting to appreciate, right, the importance of them working with us so that we get, obviously, much better valuation for all of us, including themselves, yeah.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Excellent. Thank you both. Moving on to your next question. When will we start seeing drill results, and what are the drilling plans for next year?
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Richard provided a good summary of that in the presentation. The drill rigs are arriving on site. Like he said, we will have four to five drill rigs in the next couple of months. One is being shipped from China, and the other is in country. There are three on site right now. Should start to see drilling programs going to ramp up now. We should start to see assays in the fourth quarter of calendar 2026.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Excellent. Thank you, Stephen. Moving on to your next question. It’s a bit of a long one, bear with me. The viewer commented, "Management has noted strong Q3 operational momentum with record throughput of 1,833 tons per day and recovery of 84.6%, alongside accelerated expansion to a new 3,500 tons per day SAG/ball mill circuit and plant upgrades targeted for Q4 2026 completion. You are also actively revising the LOM plan and expect an updated PEA in Q4 2026.
Can you share preliminary findings from the LOM review, including any contemplated changes to the mining sequence, such as additional open pit cutbacks at the main zone, potential deferral or acceleration of underground development at Stamford Bridge, or faster mining at Eastern Porphyry, and how these factors, combined with higher processing capacity and the current gold price environment, are expected to affect recoverable ounces, average annual production rates, mine life, and overall project economics versus the May 2025 PEA?
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Look, I love that question. I’ll tell you why I love that question. That tells me that’s a shareholder that’s very in tuned with everything, which is great, and has read the details that we put out. I’ve answered a lot of those sort of things in the presentation itself, but I’ll provide a summary. Recovery rates have gotten to around 85%. That’s correct. We expect them to go higher as a result of the new mill, into more the study ranges of 88%-90%, maybe even a little bit higher than that. We expect cost to get those recovery rates to come down as well, as we stop using as much reagents as we have. We put in place a new ADR plant.
Our crushing costs will come down as well, given that it will be a SAG ball mill followed by a ball mill. That’s good. We are also going to have, theoretically, 3,500 tons per day SAG ball mill combination, as well as the existing 2,000 ton per day plant, which gives us a theoretical capacity rate of around 5,500 tons per day potential. You got to feed it, right? The good news is that they’re going to be separate circuits. There’s multiple ball mills in the existing circuit, there’s a lot of flexibility feeding. The mine plan review right now that’s being done is to figure out what is a good number to feed it, an achievable number to feed it. There will be excess capacity.
We won’t get the 5,500 tons tomorrow when it’s turned on, because it takes time to ramp up mining, and a pit is only so large, and you only have so much room to move around. Right now, yes, there will be additional cutbacks to the pit. In theory, it will go deeper, it will go longer. Thus, the underground and the related CapEx will be deferred at least a couple of years. That’s what we’re looking at this point in time, and we’ve made those statements before. We wouldn’t be doing this if we didn’t think it led to increased profitability. The last study was done at $1,900 gold, obviously it’s going to be done at a higher gold price. We do expect some more resources to come in that weren’t in the last study, because now they become economic in the study.
In order for them to become economic, they’re lower-grade resources than in the current study. They’re still within profitable resources. I think that answers all the questions. Yeah, there will be more recoverable ounces, obviously, if you bring in more resources that are now economic as a result of your gold prices assumptions in there, given we do expect gold prices to continue to increase over time, and the recent gold price pullback reverse at some point in time. I think that answers all the questions. Mike, did I get all of those answered in one?
Michael Leonard, Chief Financial Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: I think you hit all the highlights, certainly, look forward to getting that updated study into the market in the coming months for folks to see what improvements and enhancements in value that we hope to add.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Yeah, I think the last part of that is can you go underground while expanding your open pit? The answer is yes, there’s optionality to do that, particularly if we deem it to be beneficial to the mine plans of Stamford Bridge, et cetera. Also, given that we’re going to have excess capacity, we find any resources as a result of the new drill program, they can be added in pretty quickly as well.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Excellent. Thank you both for shedding
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: If anybody knows me, they know that I like optionality.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Excellent. Thank you. Moving on to your next question. "Regarding supplies of diesel for running the plant/equipment and sulfur oxide for leaching purposes, both products being affected by the Strait of Hormuz, how are the procurement of these necessary supplies being affected by the Iran war? What are the cost implications going forward? Do you see a problem with having enough diesel to continue processing and running mining equipment, trucks, digging machines, et cetera, without significant disruptions to production over the next 6 to 12 months? What effect do you expect on future costs/profits? Do you have any hedging in place for diesel supplies? Do you have the ability to source supplies from the United States? If so, at what increased cost for shipping?
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Richard and the team has recently redone the contract. Look, what we expected to see, just like the market expected to see, a squeeze on potential oil and fuel suppliers. We aren’t seeing that. When Richard and team sat down with the fuel supplier to renegotiate the contract, Tanzania has ample supply. Actually, I believe they are at full capacity of refined diesel stock. We were surprised to hear that. Tanzania diesel is refined, it predominantly comes in from the Middle East and India, into the country, and there’s ample supply there now. I think the market also sees that, and that’s reflected in the global oil price, that despite the Iran war, there appears to be ample supplies, and that’s currently what we’re experiencing in Tanzania. We haven’t seen any squeeze on supply at this point in time.
Richard, anything to add to that? I can’t hear you right now.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Oh, it appears we have an audio issue for Richard.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Yeah. Just give me a thumbs up if I predominantly got it right. There we go. Yes. Yeah.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Thank you. Apologies.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Go ahead, Julia.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Your next question.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: No problem.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: A viewer is asking, "Any plan for a dividend buyback in the future? Are there any plans to reduce operating costs, i.e., long-term fuel contracts? Any plans to graduate to the Nasdaq or NYSE? Any strategic partnerships with firms in the work, Cat or Volvo or others, Chinese, Korean? Any uptick with other semi-precious metals or minerals on Buckreef?
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Wow, that’s a fully loaded question. What was the first part of that, Julia?
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Of course.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: It was the bigger part.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: The first part of the question was, any plan for a dividend buyback in the future?
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: With regards to dividend/buyback, with regards to dividends, I think the cash being reinvested provides a lot more value for shareholders at this point. The reason why I say that is that’s the cash within Buckreef. It’s reinvested in Buckreef to grow the value of the asset, to declare dividends out of Buckreef currently under a joint venture agreement being 55/45, there’s a lot more value to be created in the actual asset itself. The returns on that capital are significant. If you can increase EBITDA from $80 million to over $200 million for less than $50 million and not raise a dollar to do it, that’s what’s going to be done.
With regards to then around potential buybacks, I’m going to defer that question because to answer that question more broadly in what we see happening in markets, I’ll answer that question as part of that, certainly it’s one tool that’s out there to help alleviate what we’re seeing going on in the market. Next part of the question.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Of course. The next part of the question is, are there any plans to reduce operating costs, i.e., long-term fuel contracts?
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Yeah. We did get into, Mike got into this on the processing cost per ton side. Richard and team continually have a pulse on lowering operating costs. You can see, mining costs are going to come down with scale. Processing costs will come down with scale, as well as the enhancements that have been made. Yeah, we do have a pulse on cost. One of the reasons we’re very profitable and had the margins that we do is because Richard and team are constantly on cost. A lot of the enhancements that are being made increases availability or increasing throughput even in the existing plant, which lowers overall cost per ton and ounce as well.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Excellent, the next part of the question, any plans to graduate to the Nasdaq or NYSE?
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: At this point in time, we’re on a NYSE American and the main board on the TSX. I have not evaluated whether to graduate to the Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange. If I feel that it attracts more potential investors and demand for the stock, it certainly can alleviate some of the things that we’ve seen in the market. It would be a consideration.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Thank you for that response, the final part of that question was, any strategic partnerships with firms in the works, Cat or Volvo or others, Chinese, Korean? Any uptick with other semi-precious metals or minerals on Buckreef?
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Yeah, with regards to partnerships, look, we have Caterpillar equipment on site and other equipment. I wouldn’t say there’s formal partnerships, but we work with a lot of the firms that you just mentioned in procurement of equipment. I don’t see or envision it necessary to have strategic partnerships with those type of firms. They provide good service and some of them we work with.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Thank you, Stephen. Moving on to your next question. Do you anticipate reporting after-tax net profits?
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: After tax.
Michael Leonard, Chief Financial Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Just did
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: we’re reporting. Ask the financial team. You got no choice but to report that.
Michael Leonard, Chief Financial Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Just to comment briefly on that, Julia. We did report $8.4 million of after-tax net income. Again, a record GAAP result for the company.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Excellent. Thank you, Mike. Your next question is, when do you expect to do a stock buyback to help support the stock?
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Okay, now I’ll answer the question more broadly because we’ve been asked this by a lot of shareholders, and I got quite a few pings on this last night, around great operating results, great forward outlook, management team that can execute, but it seems the stock price is in perpetual fall, like other stocks that are out there. "Stephen, can you try to address what I’m seeing as a disconnect?" Some shareholders are of the view that there’s a big disconnect between what the potential valuation is now and where the share price is. To give you a sense of what we do, so we look at the shareholder registry on a quarterly basis to see whether there is movement in our shareholder group, and we have a very good shareholder group. Not a lot of change there.
We’ll get the results of that for June in the next couple of weeks, I expect to see a similar type of pattern in it. What does that tell us? That the share price decline isn’t a result of a lot of current shareholder trading stock. It’s on the periphery. It’s the best way I could say that. The supply that’s coming onto the market, I don’t believe is created by a significant shareholder turnover, given the data that we have. Where does supply come from? Who is trading the stock and who can be incented to bring it lower over time? Then we’re getting into much more of a black box. It’s a very opaque market in the U.S. There are various market makers that do have shares in our stock.
We do have a lot of hedge funds and 13F as well. Now we’re starting to see some institutional investors, which I’ll call non-hedge fund institutional investors, show up in 13F as well. What I find very interesting is market makers who create liquidity. Legally, they’re able to naked short your stock, cover with options, and things of that nature. I think there may be potential around that. I can’t confirm that. Certainly, trading-wise, you can do it, and create liquidity. There’s also others that are incented. I look this morning, I think, Mike, when we’re looking at it, the October options were really high, hey, out of the money options. There must be at least 15,000-20,000 contracts in October.
Michael Leonard, Chief Financial Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Yeah, almost unprecedented levels based on what we’ve seen.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Yeah. Unprecedented contract levels that are out of the money on call options. Obviously, that’s used as a tool for something, and that sort of thing. I’m getting the sense that a lot of our trading is not based on fundamental value. It’s based on others who make money from the stock existing, and that are incented on the downside. That’s not only for us. That’s across the sector at this point in time, and across other sectors. As buyers have fled the sector over the last couple of months, I believe my theory is that firms take advantage of it, and we’re caught up into that. How do you reverse that? Is create a good business, which we’ve done, which we’re doing. Also, that creation should get buying to overturn the negative sentiment.
We’re going to continue to grow, and one tool may or may not be a potential buyback in that, to mop up some of the, whether it’s real selling or fake selling that is occurring.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Thank you for your comments on that, Stephen. We’re coming up to your last two questions for today. The next question is, "What are the opportunities to acquire land within trucking distance from the larger combined plant?
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: I can take that. The opportunity to acquire land within, I would say, the radius of the existing plant. There may be some opportunity. I shouldn’t say there’s none, but I would say it’s more limited. Is there opportunity to acquire other lands in Tanzania that have a similar profile to Buckreef that could be built out in the same way as Buckreef and provide a win-win-win solution? Yes. Can we have discussions around that? I think we can. That is just giving you a little bit of insight into our thinking around how do you diversify operations. Khalaf, anything to add to that? You’re all over this stuff, so.
Khalaf Rashid, Senior Vice President, Tanzania, TRX Gold Corporation: Yeah. No, sure. I think there are, as you say, opportunities, but a lot of it has been divided into very small land parcels. You literally have to go through hundreds of small owners to get significant size of land for it to be meaningful for any development, yeah.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: We need to figure out a business strategy around that, and we’ve started that sort of, what I’ll say, thinking around potential business strategies to consolidate.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Excellent. Thank you both. Your last question for today is, a viewer commented, "Most of high-value intersection at Stamford Bridge appear to be deeper than open pit access. Is it safe to assume that drilling activities for your four or five rigs are focused on finding shallow resources on other parts of the property?
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Richard can answer that. We like shallow resources. We don’t mind high-grade deeper resources either.
Richard Boffey, Chief Operating Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Sure. Can you hear me okay?
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Yeah, you’re good now.
Richard Boffey, Chief Operating Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: Oh, fantastic. Great. A bit of both, I think, is the right answer. As Stephen has explained, our mining plan for our existing resources, of which we have about 1.5 million ounces, is probably going to be limited somewhere around about the 3,500, maybe 4,000 tons per day range. It will still leave us capacity for maybe 1,500 tons per day of other material. Finding oxides near the surface with our across the known sort of exploration targets we’ve got, plus these new 9 targets, that is an important priority for us. Having said that, we can’t ignore the opportunity to get a quick underground mine going. Small underground mine, but hauling very good grade gold to supplement our larger open pit operations.
That’s something that we’re looking for on the new PEA to try and see if we can get down onto Stamford Bridge, either through the expanded open pit or from the surface. I suspect we’ll be able to get from the final wall of the open pit and save ourselves a bit of money and time to get there quickly.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Excellent. Well, thank you to our presenters for all of your answers today, and thank you to our viewers who submitted your questions. If you did not get a chance to submit your question, feel free to reach out to the appropriate account manager here at Renmark. This concludes our presentation for today. Before we go, I will turn it back over to you, Stephen, for final remarks.
Stephen Mullowney, Chief Executive Officer, TRX Gold Corporation: I would like to thank shareholders for being very supportive of us. We have a great growth business plan in place, and we’re hopeful that the valuation will catch up to our growth profile. We’re going to have significant increases in EBITDA, a new study in the market, and lots of exploration. We’re well aware of what drives value of mining companies, and have a business and plan in place to drive those valuation metrics. Stay tuned. Lots of exciting things happening. We’re quite comfortable at $4,000 gold, quite comfortable operating at those levels, even quite comfortable operating at lower levels. We are well capitalized, and we’re going to just keep on, put our head down and move forward. Thank you.
Julia Perron, Virtual Event Moderator, Renmark Financial Communications: Excellent. Thank you again to Stephen and the TRX team for the presentation. Thank you again to everyone for joining us today for TRX Gold Corporation’s third quarter 2026 results. TRX Gold is trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol TRX, and on the NYSE American under the ticker symbol TRX. The playback will be available on our website 24 to 48 hours after this presentation under the Investor library tab. Stay tuned for the next quarterly call and see you next time